Tentatively Ascribed to Natural Rubber is Expected to Re-up

At present, natural rubber has been the main contract of 1001, the key to an integer points close to 20,000. The author believes that the basic trend of rising natural rubber has not changed, the fundamentals are still the better, if effectively break through 20000, this will usher in a wave of accelerating the highs.

The financial tsunami, after the baptism, our country has taken a series in order to stimulate economic recovery for the purpose of macro policies, in a positive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, appropriate support, in the first half of China’s economy has shown a steady recovery trend. Judging from the recent official release in July focused on the major economic data we can see that China’s economy in the second half of the “start” in stabilizing the momentum continues, and this trend becomes clear. Of natural rubber as an important industrial raw materials, the positive economic environment at home and abroad to the good background, the market demand, the price steadily rising.

Rubber in the automotive industry’s largest consumer groups, which flourish and bring the tire manufacturing progress. This year, China has taken the auto industry, including the car tax reduction, auto go to the countryside, speed up old car is scrapped, car “trade in” and a series of initiatives, effectively promote the sales of China’s booming auto industry, is also a strong impetus to the rapid recovery of the tire industry.

In previous years, relatively light vehicle sales in July this year, in July, car sales in previous years, a change the tunnel, out of a strong off season is not short market, the third consecutive month, sales remained at 5 months more than 1 million level. July, automotive production 1.1096 million, a decline of 3.77%, an increase of 52.15%; auto sales 1.0856 million, a decline of 4.95%, an increase of 63.57%. From January to July, auto sales reached 7.1009 million, respectively, and 7.1844 million, an increase of 20.23% and 23.38%. Tires, tire production in China in July rose 6.5%, reaching 5,718 million. From January to July’s 4.9% increase in tire production, reaching 365.6 million. The above figures show that China’s rubber consumption demand has continued to rebound.

In addition, the current popular interest in Sino US tire “special security case” continues to heat up. Tire in the face of China’s rapidly expanding U.S. market situation, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) once again moved out of the magic weapon of tariff barriers, put forward China’s passenger car, light truck tire with the Chinese system of special tariffs imposed three year program, its proportion respectively 55%, 45% and 35% high. If the above mentioned “special protection case” passed, China’s tire companies will face huge losses. At present, China’s government and industry associations to provide sufficient defense, and a resolute attitude, a positive appearance at all costs, to win this trade “special protection case” a great possibility.

In the spot, the suspension tight spot supplies, as well as strong demand impact of buyers entering since August, Thailand, No. 3 tobacco piece rubber (RSS3) shipment price of 198 208 cents kg range shock; domestic e commerce center spot Quote in 17900 18010 yuan ton fluctuated between positive macro face frequent, emotion fueled speculation the spot market, “rise in the price,” 1. In addition, according to Singapore, sources said, the main producing countries affected by affected by switching to planting of the original production in the region will be reduced by 2011 is expected to reduce the world’s natural rubber production, which also raised expectations on rubber prices.
The recent Typhoon “Morak,” is expected to affect Vietnam and southern China’s natural rubber production, which gives some support Hujiao prices, boost the confidence of investors have a certain effect.

Meanwhile, the international crude oil and the dollar will have an impact on the trend of rubber. Because of natural rubber to synthetic rubber alternatives to crude oil as the main raw material, two types of tire rubber in the production ratio is almost accounted for about half of the total volume, therefore, natural rubber and crude oil has a strong linkage between the nature. Crude oil stabilized at around 70 dollars, to support the formation of rubber prices. In addition, if the dollar index, as expected, general long term into the downstream channel, will increase inflation expectations, promoting commodity prices.

Furthermore, since 2009, investors tend to the stock market as a leading indicator of economic performance, from which oil demand was informed that the position, most of the time by the crude oil price movements, influenced by movements in the stock market. U.S. two day meeting on interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that the maintenance of 0 to 0.25% range of the current benchmark interest rate unchanged, and that interest rates will remain low over an extended period. U.S. stocks rose sharply and the dollar fell, which together contributed to sharply higher crude oil, but, EIA released last week, stocks rose 2.52 million barrels of crude oil of the report, oil prices rose slightly reduced, the follow up continue to focus on the U.S. crude oil trend.

“Little Lotus was exposed sharp corner”, rubber Quotes triggered the first wave to start the market sought after emotions, is expected to do more restless kinetic energy savings, the re opening speed up space.